DAFM Tender: Agriculture and LULUCF Modelling


Scope of services to be delivered by the successful tenderer in support of CAMG

3.1 Nature of services to be delivered

3.1.1 Development of modelling tools to assess the emissions reduction impact of national policy on the Agriculture Sector and Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)

The successful tenderer will be expected to develop and maintain an Ireland-specific land balance model to identify national agriculture and land use pathways to climate neutrality.

This model should be capable of undertaking comprehensive integrated scenarios of agricultural activities and land use combinations within biophysical constraints (for example available land area, livestock productivities, fertiliser-driven grass yields, forest growth rates, wetland and peatland rehabilitation) with an emphasis on biophysical linkages across food production, GHG emissions, and carbon sinks at a national level.

This will involve:

  • ensuring the model is available on an ongoing basis as an operational modelling tool for scenario analysis to inform ongoing developments in national Agriculture and LULUCF, air quality, climate and energy policy;
  • regularly improving the model to incorporate new information and requirements, for example, bioenergy production, spatial optimisation for modelled Agriculture and LULUCF scenarios and
  • differing predicted climate conditions,
  • incorporating, on an ongoing basis, updates of relevant sectoral, policy and macro-economic data, including prices, technologies and programme-specific data.

This model should be capable of the following minimum outputs:

  • development and maintenance of annual national scenarios, aligned with official EPA inventory and projections data;
  • defined alternative national scenarios to explore the interactions and synergies between Agriculture, LULUCF, Energy, Air and Climate policy;
  • integrate with key sensitivity analyses, and key parameter that influence agricultural production, such as GHG fluxes, ammonia (NH3) emissions, and nutrient losses to water using methodologies aligned with Ireland’s UNFCCC reporting
  • the running of sector focused scenarios on request (for example alternative agricultural scenarios) to explore abatement potentials and emission outcomes; and
  • the exploration of potential national pathways.

3.1.2 Development of modelling tools for integration with other CAMG models and land cover maps

The successful tenderer will develop and maintain an Agriculture Sector and Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry model that is capable of integration with existing climate and emissions models established under CAMG, for example energy and air quality. Spatial outputs should be compatible with national land cover maps and tools.

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